How False Patterns Cause You to Make Bad Decisions

Our ability to see connections between things is key to our understanding of the world. But, we can find false patterns that distort our view of the world.

Humans are exceptional at recognizing patterns. Our ability to uncover connections and meanings between unrelated things is key to our understanding of the world around us. But, we can take it too far and find false patterns that distort our view of the world.

Pattern recognition is crucial to humans. We learn by looking for repeating processes and events then figure out why they’re happening. Patterns are a source of curiosity, experimentation, and creativity. It leads to many fascinating discoveries and creations.

Indeed, we owe our existence to pattern recognition. It allowed our early ancestors to identify poisonous plants and separate predator from prey.

Besides survival, pattern recognition enhances our ability to communicate. For example, visual pattern recognition allows us to read and recognize faces. And our power to understand language rests on auditory pattern recognition.

Today, we use it for everything from diagnosing ailments to discovering new planets.

But sometimes, we see patterns that don't exist, which leads us to take irrational actions. Apophenia is the term used to describe false pattern recognition. Examples include gambler's fallacy and the belief in quack medicine. In the extreme, it can lead someone to believe in radical religious movements or conspiracy theories.

Pattern Recognition

The term pattern recognition was first used in machine learning to describe the identification of patterns in data. These patterns are then used as the basis for taking action.

Cognitive psychologists later adopted the term. They use it to describe how our brains use incoming sensory information to select an action. In essence, it is the process we use to recognize, identify, and categorize information. That information then becomes the basis for what we do.

Pattern Recognition Process

How does pattern recognition work? There are several theories, but they all follow a general four-stage process.

1. Data detection using a sensor, such as a retina.

2. Feature detection in the incoming data, such as orientation and color.

3. Classification of data based on features, such as "snake" or "rock."

4. Action selection based on the classification in stage 3, such as "run" or "pick up."

Pattern Recognition Theories

There are several pattern recognition theories. Following are three of the most common. Keep in mind that the everyday application of these theories in our lives is not mutually exclusive

Template Matching

Template matching theory is the most basic pattern recognition theory. In it, we store images in our memory that serve as templates. We then compare incoming information to our templates to find an exact match.

Prototype Matching

Prototype matching is like template matching, but it's more flexible in that it doesn't need an exact match. Instead, we compare incoming information to a prototype we create from several templates.

Feature Analysis

In feature analysis, feature detectors identify specific features in the incoming information. Features can be things like the horizontal, vertical, diagonal, and curved lines in the alphabet. We then sort and filter the incoming data to make sense of it.

Apophenia or False Pattern Recognition

We’ve covered the benefits of our pattern recognition superpower and how it works. But, like most good things in life, too much can be a detriment.

We’re pattern-matching machines. We do it without thinking about it. Indeed, it’s a process we don’t even have to learn. In fact, we’re so good at recognizing patterns that we’re apt to see patterns that don’t exist.

Apophenia happens when we find connections or meaning in random or meaningless data. These false patterns are noise that interferes with our reasoning. And they can lead us to unjustified conclusions.

Biases and Fallacies Brought on by Apophenia

Apophenia can work with many biases and fallacies to mess up our decision-making process.

Pareidolia

While not a bias or fallacy, pareidolia can nonetheless lead to errors in judgment. Pareidolia is the tendency for our brain to interpret random data in a meaningful way. For example, seeing images in clouds or of the Virgin Mary on a grilled cheese sandwich.

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is our tendency to seek out information that confirms a prior belief. At the same time, we disregard information that counters that belief. As a result, confirmation bias can increase the likelihood that we see a false pattern when the pattern confirms our beliefs.

Gambler’s Fallacy

Have you ever played a game of chance and thought you found a pattern in some random events such as dice rolling. The gambler's fallacy is our belief that prior outcomes affect future outcomes in situations of pure random chance. For example, it's not more likely that your next roll of a die will be a two because you haven't rolled in two in the last several throws. ("I'm due for a two!")

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is our tendency to ignore differences and focus on similarities. For example, thinking someone is your soulmate because you both like pizza and horror movies. While this sounds good, you're ignoring all the things you disagree on, such as having kids or wanting a pet.

Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

Because we observe a correlation between two variables doesn't mean that one variable caused the other. There could be a third variable impacting the other variables.

For example, we can’t conclude that eating ice cream leads to violent crime because both increased during the summer. In this case, the rising summer temperature is the third variable. It can cause an increase in both ice cream consumption and violence.

Magical Thinking

Magical thinking is when we believe that our thoughts, ideas, words, actions, or use of symbols can influence the real world. It's the belief that we can influence an event by doing something unrelated to the event. For example, superstitions such as carrying a stone in your pocket for good luck are magical thinking.

Problems Resulting From Apophenia

So, how does apophenia show up in real life? Let's look at some examples.

Conspiracy Theories and Superstitions

Assuming that correlation is causation plus apophenia can lead us to believe in conspiracy theories.

For example, in 2017, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that Donald Trump would face a pandemic during his tenure. Then COVID outbreak happened in 2020. For some, that's evidence that there was a conspiracy to unleash an infectious disease on the world.¹

But the truth is that pandemics are more common than many realize. So there is a high probability that any president will have to deal with some sort of pandemic over a four-year term.

The same situation can lead to magical thinking and superstitions.

Imagine driving to work without getting stopped by any red lights. And a week later, the same thing happens. Then, you realize you were wearing the same pair of socks both days. That leads you to believe that your socks make your commute easier.

Quack Medicine and the Paranormal

Medical hucksters rely on people drawing connections between particular acts and desired outcomes. For example, that drinking cactus juice will cure disease.

Psychics, astrologers, and others who deal in the paranormal operate in the same way. They rely on gullible people drawing connections between vague predictions and events in their lives. For example, when a fortune-teller says that she sees significant changes in your life, your mind will draw a connection to some event in your life, such as a job change.

Other new-age concepts like the law of attraction depend on false pattern recognition.

These examples don't cause any significant problems in most cases. But people can take apophenia too far and adopt radical beliefs that destroy their lives.

How to Avoid Judgment Errors From Apophenia

So, how do you protect against apophenia?

First, understand your biases. You're more likely to see a pattern that reinforces one of your biases. So, when you see such a pattern, ask yourself if what you're seeing is driven by one of your prior beliefs.

Second, if the pattern is a series of events, list out all the possible reasons the events could have occurred. Often you’ll find that the probability that one event caused another is lower than it appears.

Third, use probabilistic thinking. Take a moment to judge the probability that the pattern you're seeing is, in fact, authentic. Also, take into account the cost of being wrong.

Of course, there are other tactics you can use to avoid apophenia. But, most of all, stop and think. And understand that seeing false patterns can sometimes be fun. Who doesn't remember looking for pictures in the clouds when they were a kid?

Pattern Recognition Has Many Benefits But Can Cause Us to Make Bad Decisions

It’s easy to see the benefits we get from recognizing patterns. It's a foundational aspect of our world. Without it, our survival would come into question.

But we're so good at recognizing patterns that we often see patterns that don't exist. In most cases, apophenia doesn't cause any significant problems. Seeing animals in the clouds or reading your horoscope can be fun.

But logic errors based on apophenia can lead to frustration and poor judgment. And it can cause severe consequences like losing your life savings in the stock market or joining a cult. So don't let the lure of a big payday or the promise of eternal salvation blind you to reality.

1 USA Today fact-checked whether Fauci, in fact, said this and confirmed that he did. See Fact check: Fauci warned the Trump administration in 2017 of surprise infectious disease outbreak.

Photo by Johnny Cohen on Unsplash